Global food security

I went to a great lecture today by Professor Chris Barrett on “The Global Food Security Challenge in the Coming Decades”. The slides from this lecture are available here. Here are my notes:

  • Current global food demand growth is ~1.25% pa, while annual growth in supply has been falling and is now only ~1% pa.
  • This means food prices are now rising (after decades of falling food prices). 2011 was a record profit year for US farmers. This is good news for renewed investment in the agricultural sector, but until supply can be increased, the poorest will suffer.
  • Developing countries have by far the largest effect on food demand. Not only are they growing much faster than developed countries, but a much larger proportion of income increases are spent on food.
  • Currently 85-90% of food is consumed in the country it is produced. However, most arable land in Asia is already used, so rising Asian demand will require large increases in productivity per hectare or large-scale food imports.
  • The remaining unutilised arable land in the world is mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Huge land grabs by foreign investors are occurring as a result. In many corrupt countries, the proceeds are going to the political classes, while the poor get dispossessed (even in those countries with property rights, many poor are not within the land title system). A 2008 Daewoo deal to lease 1.3 million hectares in Madagascar contributed to the overthrow of the government there.
  • Nutrient deficiencies in the developing world are more severe than energy deficiencies (~15% of population in developing countries are deficient in energy, 31% in Vitamin A, 33% in iodine, 61% in iron). Effects of nutrient deficiencies on intellectual development constitute a poverty trap.
  • Governments everywhere need to invest more in research on productivity-increasing sustainable farming methods, which may or may not include GMOs, to avoid excessive monopolisation of agricultural technology vital to food security. Patent reform may be required.
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One Response to Global food security

  1. Matt says:

    What do you think of this scenario?

    1. Limitless cheap energy becomes a reality (cheap solar and storage perhaps?)
    2. De-sal with cheap energy provides lots of water
    3. Food rich countries may tend to decrease population in the longer term

    Can this or other human ingenuity keep the Malthusians at bay for a bit longer?

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